Spring Break
Elections in Ohio contested
Nick D'Amico
Issue date: 4/21/06 Section: OpEd Page
National and international politics tend to soak up plenty of media attention while state politics are given short shrift. However, in the coming election cycle, Ohio politics will be just as exciting as any national election. Both senatorial and gubernatorial races are highly competitive and could be an indication of what will happen in the 2008 presidential elections.
The gubernatorial race is narrowing down to three primary candidates at this point. U.S. Congressman Ted Strickland is the current frontrunner for the Democrats while Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell and Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro are battling for the Republican nomination. This race will prove to be one of the most difficult for Republicans. Polls show Strickland leading both of the Republican candidates with an even wider margin over Blackwell who many think will receive the nomination.
In the Senate, two term Senator Mike DeWine is facing U.S. Congressman Sherrod Brown. DeWine has a strong senate record and is fairly popular at home, but polls still show the race to be close between the two candidates.
But the Republicans have a critical advantage that could very well hand them victory in both cases. That is the domination of Republicans in almost every facet of government in Ohio. Republicans have a well-organized and pervasive party structure that was key to getting conservative voters to the polls in 2004 and in handing President Bush the election. The Democrats have consistently suffered from a weak party structure that had to reinvent itself every election cycle. However, it remains to be seen whether the seeds that John Kerry planted in the state during 2004 have come to fruition for Democratic organizers. Even if Democrats are stronger in the state now than ever before, they still are at a serious disadvantage in terms of organization.
During the 2004 presidential elections, analysts saw Ohio as a bellwether state that would likely indicate which way the overall race would go. The composition of the state's population was generally similar to the composition of the nation as a whole, and its many cleavages. This remains true, but this election cycle, Ohio politics also closely match national politics. In both cases Republican administrations are battling extremely low approval ratings due to scandals and corruption. Both Taft and Bush are exhibiting low approval ratings after a series of blunders or corruption revelations. But, if Republicans can deliver a victory in Ohio, that can easily demonstrate the ability of Republicans to overcome scandal. The greatest danger Republicans face this election cycle is not from the Democrats but from themselves. If conservative voters feel alienated from the government and do not come out in the numbers they did in previous elections, failure at the polls is almost certain. What Republican organizers need to do is to keep their base energized and make sure every voter they have comes out in November.
The gubernatorial race is narrowing down to three primary candidates at this point. U.S. Congressman Ted Strickland is the current frontrunner for the Democrats while Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell and Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro are battling for the Republican nomination. This race will prove to be one of the most difficult for Republicans. Polls show Strickland leading both of the Republican candidates with an even wider margin over Blackwell who many think will receive the nomination.
In the Senate, two term Senator Mike DeWine is facing U.S. Congressman Sherrod Brown. DeWine has a strong senate record and is fairly popular at home, but polls still show the race to be close between the two candidates.
But the Republicans have a critical advantage that could very well hand them victory in both cases. That is the domination of Republicans in almost every facet of government in Ohio. Republicans have a well-organized and pervasive party structure that was key to getting conservative voters to the polls in 2004 and in handing President Bush the election. The Democrats have consistently suffered from a weak party structure that had to reinvent itself every election cycle. However, it remains to be seen whether the seeds that John Kerry planted in the state during 2004 have come to fruition for Democratic organizers. Even if Democrats are stronger in the state now than ever before, they still are at a serious disadvantage in terms of organization.
During the 2004 presidential elections, analysts saw Ohio as a bellwether state that would likely indicate which way the overall race would go. The composition of the state's population was generally similar to the composition of the nation as a whole, and its many cleavages. This remains true, but this election cycle, Ohio politics also closely match national politics. In both cases Republican administrations are battling extremely low approval ratings due to scandals and corruption. Both Taft and Bush are exhibiting low approval ratings after a series of blunders or corruption revelations. But, if Republicans can deliver a victory in Ohio, that can easily demonstrate the ability of Republicans to overcome scandal. The greatest danger Republicans face this election cycle is not from the Democrats but from themselves. If conservative voters feel alienated from the government and do not come out in the numbers they did in previous elections, failure at the polls is almost certain. What Republican organizers need to do is to keep their base energized and make sure every voter they have comes out in November.
